GEOINFORMATICS RESEARCH PAPERS, publ. BS1001, doi:10.2205/2013BS008, 2013

Evolution models for geomedical statistics

A. A. Lushnikov, A. D. Gvishiani, Yu. S. Lyubovtseva, A. A. Makosko


This paper suggests a collection of demographic models describing the time evolution of the medico-demographic indicators of population: population size, population age distributions, fertility, mortality etc. The evolution of the population is considered to be driven by birth–death processes and deceases. For each model a respective set of evolution equation is formulated. These equations include kinetic parameters that have the meaning of the transition rates and whose values are linked to the characteristics of current medico-demographic state. We consider a number of evolution demographic models of different levels the lowest of which includes uni-gender population, where, in addition, newborns appear irrespective of the population distribution over ages. Then we introduce more sophisticated models that distinguish the ages of the members of community and their gender. We also consider the situations, where infections and deceases affect the medico-demographic state and thus the evolution of the population. The results of our study are illustrated by some numerical examples.

Received 15 April 2013; accepted 17 April 2013; published 25 April 2013.

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Citation: Lushnikov A. A., A. D. Gvishiani, Yu. S. Lyubovtseva, A. A. Makosko (2013), Evolution models for geomedical statistics, Geoinf. Res. Papers, BS1001, doi:10.2205/2013BS008.

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